The company Strategy Analytics predicted global shipments of android-based smartphones would grow 900 percent in 2009: Were they correct?
In 2008, the mobile technology landscape was experiencing rapid evolution. Apple’s iPhone had already started redefining the smartphone market, but it was the emergence of Android, an open-source operating system developed by Google, that promised to change the dynamics fundamentally. Amidst this backdrop, the research firm Strategy Analytics made a bold prediction: global shipments of Android-based smartphones would grow by 900 percent in 2009. This audacious forecast naturally drew significant attention. But looking back, were they correct?
The Android Surge: A Retrospective
To understand the prediction’s validity, it’s essential to contextualize the state of the smartphone market in 2008. Android was a nascent platform, having just been introduced with the launch of the HTC Dream (also known as the T-Mobile G1) in October 2008. While the iPhone was pioneering the touchscreen experience, Android’s promise lay in its open-source nature, which allowed for extensive customization and was attractive to a broad range of manufacturers.
In 2008, Android shipments were minimal, primarily due to the late release of the HTC Dream and the nascent state of the ecosystem. The prediction of a 900 percent growth thus suggested that the shipments would multiply nearly tenfold in just one year. Given the low base number in 2008, this was ambitious but not entirely implausible. However, the actual figures tell a more nuanced story.
Examining the 2009 Market Data
Strategy Analytics’ prediction was not far off the mark. According to various market reports, Android did see exponential growth in 2009, though the exact percentage varies slightly depending on the source. Reports from Canalys and Gartner highlight that Android shipments did increase significantly, capturing a notable share of the global smartphone market.
In 2009, multiple new Android devices were launched by major manufacturers such as Motorola, Samsung, and HTC, contributing to the rapid increase in shipments. Notably, Motorola’s Droid, released in November 2009, was a significant commercial success and played a crucial role in popularizing Android among consumers.
Factors Contributing to Growth
Several factors contributed to the explosive growth of Android smartphones in 2009:
- Diverse Manufacturer Support: Unlike Apple, which was the sole manufacturer of the iPhone, Android’s open-source nature meant it could be adopted by any manufacturer. This led to a plethora of devices catering to different market segments, from budget to high-end smartphones.
- Carrier Adoption: Major carriers worldwide were eager to offer Android phones as a competitive alternative to the iPhone. Verizon’s aggressive marketing of the Motorola Droid is a case in point.
- App Ecosystem: Although the Android Market (now Google Play Store) was still growing, it quickly amassed a substantial number of apps, enhancing the platform’s attractiveness.
- Customization and Innovation: Android’s flexibility allowed manufacturers to innovate and differentiate their devices. Features like customizable user interfaces, varied form factors, and unique hardware integrations appealed to a broad audience.
Comparative Analysis
To assess the accuracy of the 900 percent growth prediction, it’s helpful to consider the actual numbers. While specific shipment figures from 2008 are sparse, reports indicate that around 0.7 million Android devices were shipped in the fourth quarter of 2008. Given this base, a 900 percent increase would imply approximately 7 million devices by the end of 2009.
Data from the International Data Corporation (IDC) and other industry analysts show that Android’s market share in 2009 did increase dramatically. By the end of 2009, Android’s market share was around 4 percent, up from less than 1 percent in 2008. While this suggests a substantial increase, whether it hit the 900 percent mark exactly is debatable due to varying base figures and the rapid market changes.
Conclusion
Strategy Analytics’ bold prediction of a 900 percent growth in Android smartphone shipments for 2009 was ambitious, reflecting the industry’s optimism about the platform’s potential. While the precise percentage might not have been 900 percent, the actual growth was undeniably exponential and transformational. Android’s rise in 2009 set the stage for its eventual dominance in the global smartphone market.
By 2010, Android had firmly established itself as a formidable contender, with its market share continuing to climb. The prediction, while aggressive, underscored the disruptive potential of Android and highlighted the dynamic nature of the smartphone industry. The rapid adoption of Android in 2009 was a testament to the power of open-source platforms and the hunger for innovation among manufacturers and consumers alike.
In hindsight, Strategy Analytics’ forecast captured the essence of the Android phenomenon, marking 2009 as a pivotal year in the history of mobile technology. The year set the foundation for Android’s future success, validating the prediction’s spirit if not the exact figure.
